Jiyu Research: Risk Recovery Awaits Spring Quotes

2020/01/03 14:10:28 Source: China Securities Journal, China Securities Journal 2020/01/03 14:10:28

China Securities Journal News On January 3, a report released by Jiyu Research showed that judging from the preliminary manufacturing PMI released by major markets in December, it is still too early to judge that the global economy has recovered, but it is still in line with the first three quarters of 2019. Compared with the rapid decline, it has now stabilized. Among them, the stabilization of the US economy has a significant impact on the global economy. As the Fed suspends this round of interest rate cuts, the global interest rate cut is coming to an end, and global bond market yields are also showing signs of rising recently.

In terms of the bond market, Jiyu Research believes that the bond market will be difficult to achieve overall expectations in 2020, and current stable growth expectations are strong. Local government special debt quotas have been issued in advance. Under this premise, the economic data in the first half of 2020 may exceed expectations On the upside, interest rates and credit risk coexist in the first half of 2020. Strategically, high-grade credit coupons contribute to “steady happiness”.

In terms of the stock market, Jiyu Research believes that the current market valuation of A shares is still reasonable, but the repair has been basically completed. More structural opportunities will be presented in 2020, and the differentiation between industries and companies will further increase. Facing the pressure of valuation regression, in 2020, investors need to continue to explore new core assets from two dimensions of valuation rationality and profitability, and test the fund managers' ability to actively choose stocks.

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