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Changchun High-tech: Growth hormone continues to drive high growth, governance mechanism straightens out and supports long-term growth

2020/01/03 14:02:46 Source: CICC 2020/01/03 14:02:46

Performance Preview

Predicted profit growth 60-80% Changchun High-tech Announces 2019 annual results forecast, expected net profit attributable to mothers in 2019 16-18

100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60-80% (Jinsai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. consolidated at a rate of 99.5% in November-December 2019, up from 70%); the performance exceeded our expectations, mainly due to the consolidation of minority equity and growth expected.

Points of attention

High growth hormone growth is still the company's main performance Driving force . Since 2016, the company has continuously increased the growth hormone terminal sales staff and strengthened channel sinking. Grassroots volume is the main reason driving high growth hormone growth. The company's long-acting growth hormone is undergoing clinical trials that are smaller than the indications of gestational age, Turner syndrome, idiopathic dwarf children, and adult growth hormone deficiency. With the market expansion of long-acting products and the development of indications, we expect to follow up The increase in the proportion of long-acting products will become a new growth point for growth hormone.

Jinsai Pharmaceutical's acquisition of minority shareholders' equity has been completed, and the governance mechanism is expected to be streamlined. The company has completed the acquisition of 29.5% minority shareholders' equity of Jinsai Pharmaceutical in November 2019. On the one hand, it can increase the performance of listed companies; on the other hand, it can also streamline the corporate governance mechanism to achieve consistency of interests between management and shareholders To help the company's long-term development.

Biogram is expected to resume growth. Affected by process improvement factors, the supply of 100 grams of biological products was limited in the first half of the year, and shipments decreased. We expect it to recover in the second half of the year. With the popularization of the "one shot to two shots" vaccination method for chickenpox vaccine, we expect the chickenpox vaccine to maintain steady growth; the company's nasal spray vaccine has started production site verification and is expected to become a new growth point.

Valuations and recommendations

In order to reflect the impact of the acquisition of minority shareholders' equity of Jinsai Pharmaceutical and the growth hormone sales exceeded expectations, we raised the EPS forecast for 2019/2020 by 2% / 37% to 8.43 and 13.55 yuan per share, while introducing a profit forecast for 2021. The current stock price corresponds to a P / E of 52x / 33x / 26x for 2019/2020/2021, and the target price is increased by 43% to 500 yuan. The closing price has 13% upside. Maintain Outperform rating.

risk

Growth hormone terminal promotion is less than expected, and rabies vaccine batches are unstable.

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