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Moutai, Guizhou: After the 100 billion era, lay the foundation and start again

2020/01/03 14:02:44 Source: Zhongtai Securities 2020/01/03 14:02:44

Investment Highlights

Event: The company announced that it will produce about 49,900 tons of Moutai base wine and about 25,100 tons of series wine in 2019; it will realize a total operating income of about 88.5 billion yuan in 2019, an increase of about 15% year-on-year; Net profit was about 40.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 15%. In 2020, the company plans to arrange a total operating income increase of 10% year-on-year, and Moutai wine sales plan is about 34,500 tons.

19Q4 revenue growth was in line with expectations, and profit growth was slightly lower than expected. According to the company's 2019 performance guidance, we estimate that the company's operating income in the fourth quarter will be about 24.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 13% year-on-year. It is estimated that the shipment of Moutai wine will be about 9400 tons, which will still have a single-digit growth; the net profit will be about 10 billion yuan. , A year-on-year decrease of about 4%, lower than market expectations. We believe that it is mainly affected by two aspects. The first is that the increase in the proportion of non-standard products in 18Q4 has increased the gross profit level. The second is the negative 18Q4 sales expense ratio. In 2020, the company's sales volume of Maotai liquor is 34,500 tons, an increase of 11% compared to the plan announced last year, and at the same time, the planned total operating income will increase by 10%. The revenue target can be successfully achieved without increasing the price, which is consistent with the company's consistent conservativeness. Business style.

2020 is positioned as the "Year of Infrastructure", consolidating the foundation and regaining momentum. In 2019, the Maotai Group successfully achieved the 100 billion yuan revenue target. In the next 2020, the company will focus on channel grooming and optimization of governance to lay the foundation for the development of the post-100 billion era. In terms of channels, the company will optimize the management of direct sales channels, focusing on strengthening the management of airports and high-speed rail stores, while accelerating the re-launch of the e-commerce platform, uneven and accurate delivery, and increasing the number of direct sales stores. In terms of governance, the recent dealer conference reported that the company clearly defined the marketing company as the distributor, and made clear that all marketing work was arranged by the sales company. The division of labor clearly helped to streamline the marketing system, further eliminating market concerns about internal governance, and Lay the foundation on track.

In the medium and long term, Moutai is expected to continue to achieve steady growth. The future growth of Moutai should still focus on the relationship between supply and demand. We believe that the tight supply and demand pattern of Moutai will persist for a long time. The current batch of prices is stable at around 2400 yuan. Considering that the current channel price gap is sufficient, Moutai will continue to raise prices in the future. In the long run, channel spreads will eventually return to normal levels. We expect that the compound growth rate of revenue in the next 3-5 years is still expected to achieve 15% growth. It is recommended to look at the company's investment opportunities from a longer-term perspective and continue to recommend it.

Investment suggestion: Maintain “Buy” rating. We adjusted our profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's total operating income for 2019-2021 will be 89/996/1145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% / 11% / 15%; net profit will be 409.46% / 549 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%. % / 15% / 17%, the corresponding EPS is 32.54 / 37.33 / 43.71 yuan.

Risk reminders: San Gong's consumption restrictions will increase, competition in the high-end wine industry will increase, and food quality accidents will occur.

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