A-shares usher in the New Year's start, institutions say "rebalancing" will become market keywords

2020/01/03 09:07:20 Source: China Securities Journal 2020/01/03 09:07:20

January 2 was the first trading day of 2020, and A shares ushered in a good start. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.15% to 3085.20 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.99% to 10638.82 points; the ChiNext Index rose 1.93% to 1832.74 points. Some institutions said that A-shares will continue to rise in the short term, and looking forward to the whole year, rebalancing will become the key word in 2020.

Lowering stock prices is good for stocks

On January 1, 2020, the People's Bank of China announced that it would reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on January 6. The People's Bank of China said that the overall RRR cut will release more than 800 billion yuan of long-term funds.

In this regard, Xingshi Investment said that the full-scale reduction landing is a icing on the cake for equity assets, and the long-term trend of equity assets will not change. The overall RRR cut will drive down the risk-free interest rate and help boost the valuation of equity assets. In addition, relatively speaking, in the environment of falling interest rates, growth stocks have benefited more; the judgment of the long-term bull market of growth stocks is still maintained.

China Merchants Fund said that the overall RRR cut will help consolidate the momentum of economic recovery and will support the further upward movement of A shares in the short term. The low-value cyclical sector needs to focus on. It is recommended to benefit from the non-silver and cyclical sectors that benefit from economic stability and market risk appetite upwards, but benefit from policy support and news-catalyzed technology sectors and the booming new energy sector and real estate sector The cyclical industry chain is also worth participating in.

Rebalancing is expected to be the main tone

Looking ahead to 2020, many private equity people believe that rebalancing will become the main tone of A-shares in 2020.

According to Mao Dian Assets, overall, we are optimistic about the first half of 2020, and investment opportunities will be endless. However, in 2019, the consumer, pharmaceutical, and technology sectors benefited from rising valuations. Consensus expectations have been strong, and the stock price reflects the expectations more fully. At the same time, due to the still cautious attitude towards long-term economic growth and the repeated concerns about overseas markets, we remain cautious about the second half of 2020. It is expected that the volatility and risks for the whole year of 2020 will be relatively low. 2019 is even bigger.

Yuanlesheng Assets believes that from a policy perspective, rebalancing will be the main tone of the market in 2020, that is, from the original "de-leveraging" and "de-realization" to "stabilizing leverage, real estate, infrastructure and currency." ". At the end of 2020, the transition period of the new asset management regulations will reach the end. Some of the investment targets that the market is keen on in the past will be impacted, and non-standard products will become the past. In addition, with the increasing concentration of industry leaders, the attractiveness of A-shares to institutional and high-net-worth customers' funds will increase significantly.

Qinghequan Capital said that from a static perspective, the difference in stock bond returns is a key indicator for judging the relative attractiveness of medium and long-term large-scale assets (equity bonds). From a dynamic perspective, historical data shows that the periodical rise and fall of A shares are often based on Valuation-driven. Looking forward to the driving force of valuation in 2020, compared to the inflection point of credit and liquidity in 2019, 2020 is a year of equilibrium, because credit and liquidity are expected to have only a small "correction". In addition, the valuation of first- and second-tier assets will converge, and style and industry are under pressure to rebalance.

In the face of the above changes, Qinghequan Capital believes that it will focus on three types of assets: first, assets with relatively high return on equity (ROE) but lower valuations, mainly concentrated in some traditional industries; and second, those with long-term moats High ROE assets are mainly concentrated in the consumer goods industry; thirdly, invisible high ROE assets with large short-term investment are mainly concentrated in high-speed and high-speed technological innovation industries, including TMT, innovative drugs and new energy vehicles.

Renqiao Asset Xia Junjie believes that the rebalancing process will take place in 2020, not only referring to the rebalancing between value and growth, but also the rebalancing within value and growth. He pointed out: "At present, there are a lot of imbalances in the market. Some deep value stocks are left unattended for various reasons, and some long-term growth stocks have been left out of the market because they show a certain cyclicality. Features such as valuation and low attention, these varieties will become beneficiaries in the process of rebalancing in the future. "

(Article source: China Securities Journal)

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