I want to renew
2020/01/03 09:01:15 Source: China Securities Journal 2020/01/03 09:01:15
On January 2, 2020, the media sector rose by 4.37%, ranking first in the growth of Shenwan's first-tier industry. Since the rise of the media sector index in December 2019, the cumulative increase has reached 16.69%.
Analysts said that the media sector remains active and contains multiple driving logic. Both 5G commercial use brings new development opportunities to the industry and short-term profit margin improvement expectations. In 2020, due to the advance of the Spring Festival, compared with 2019, the number of movies in the Spring Festival has increased and the types are rich, which has also become a stimulus for the strengthening of media stocks.
Sufficient growth momentum
Looking at the media sector index chart, after reaching an all-time high in June 2015, it fell into a continuous correction, and the trend did not improve until 2019.
Regarding the reasons for the continued correction of the previous media sector, He Ying, an analyst at Fortune Securities Media, said that from the historical trend of the media sector, policy changes, technological progress and the interpretation of industry fundamentals had a significant impact on the sector.
He Ying believes that from the current point of view, the above three influencing factors are considered: at the policy level, regulation is normalized, and the marginal impact on the industry is gradually reduced; on the technical level, 2019 enters the first year of 5G construction and the communication network is upgraded Promote media content and application innovation. 5G commercial brings new development opportunities such as cloud games, VR / AR, and ultra-high-definition video to the industry. At the profit level, the media sector has been under pressure for three consecutive years from 2017 to 2019. The decline in the third quarter results narrowed, and in the fourth quarter of 2019, the performance growth rate will rebound sharply under the low base effect. The short-term profit margin improvement is expected to be strong, the demand for entertainment consumption in the medium and long-term is stable, and the growth momentum of the sector is sufficient.
In addition, the 2020 Spring Festival film has a lot to watch, which is expected to become another stimulus for the sector to continue to strengthen in the short term. Judging from the currently scheduled dates, there will be 9 premiere films on the first day of the first month of the first month (there is no rule that other films may be scheduled), including "Chinatown Detective 3", "Ginger Ziya" and other films.
Industry insiders said that due to the early Spring Festival in 2020, the high prosperity of the film market in the fourth quarter of 2019 will support the secondary market to the first quarter of 2020.
Follow the three main lines
The media sector has continued to strengthen recently, and the market's attention has increased. Many stocks in the sector have shown an upward trend. Against this background, how should the market outlook for the media sector be laid out?
Regarding investment opportunities in the media sector, Fortune Securities stated that it is recommended to pay attention to three main investment lines: First, the game sector with good fundamentals and important 5G applications using cloud games to catalyze valuation enhancement; second, the film and television with negative factors gradually cleared and margins improved Sector; the third is the vocational education sector where the industry is prosperous and policies strongly support it.
Tianfeng Securities said that since the 2019 summer film "Nez" performed better than expected, the margin of the film market has improved significantly. Stimulated by the Spring Festival, the movie market is expected to usher in a good start in 2020, and the industry will continue to pick up. It is suggested that in the short to medium term, attention should be paid to the performance flexibility of upstream production companies and the profit recovery of downstream cinema companies after the restoration of supply, and to the change in theater supply in the medium to long term.
CITIC Construction Investment Securities said that the cultural industry policy began to pick up marginally in the second half of 2019, and gradually shifted from "supervision" to "promotion", and a new round of industrial policy cycle began. In the round of industry supervision and policies since 2016, the irrational production capacity of the film and television industry was gradually cleared, and the "leftovers are king" in the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the four directions of technology iteration and evolution, policy improvement, industry improvement and continuous growth of consumption attributes.
(Article source: China Securities Journal)