Crack Group: The rebound in downstream industries has driven demand rebound, and performance at the peak of 5G construction can be expected-the impact of the recovery in downstream industries on Crack shares

2019/12/31 15:03:08 Source: Huaan Securities 2019/12/31 15:03:08

The main points:

November industry robot The year-on-year increase in output has expanded, and the industry inflection point has reached

November 2019 Industry robot The output was 16,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%. The year-on-year increase in output was further expanded from the previous month's 1.7%. After experiencing a previous 11-month decline, the industrial robot The inflection point for production has arrived. At the same time, the November manufacturing PMI index increased by 50.2% from last month by 0.9pct. After falling below a critical point for 6 consecutive months, it returned to the expansion range again.

3C electronics has become a pioneer in the recovery of the industry, and related companies have benefited more.

We think the previous industry robot Affected by downstream industries, especially the automotive and 3C industries, production suffered a decline of up to 11 months. This round of industry recovery, more downstream 3C automation Of the first recovery automation Demand for equipment, the cumulative investment in manufacturing fixed assets from January to November increased 2.5% year-on-year, of which 3C electronics growth rate of 13.8% was significantly higher than the average level, and the major downstream customers were in the 3C field. robot The company benefits more.

Crack shares It is a leader in the field of precision soldering in China, and most of its downstream customers are well-known enterprises.

The company is a leader in the field of precision welding in China. The main products include welding tools robot Associated equipment for assembly operations and flexible automated production lines. Electronic assembly is a key link in electronic manufacturing, which directly affects the electrical connectivity, stability and safety of electronic products. The company's technical level is leading in the industry, robot In the ranking of the top ten welding companies in the world, the company ranked first in China and third in the world. The company's downstream customers are mostly well-known companies, including Flextronics, Foxconn, Panasonic, GoerTek , Offi light , Lixun Precision Wait. Years of cooperation with well-known companies has continued to increase the company's performance Changhe The expansion of the market share provides protection, and at the same time reflects the company's product research and development capabilities and process levels are at the leading level in the industry, and are recognized by downstream and downstream customers.

5G construction peak is approaching, the company will continue to benefit

We expect that next year will be the peak of 5G construction. Demand for various devices including smartphones, smart watches, VR / AR devices will increase. The expansion of the 3C product market has brought upstream automation Equipment needs. Simultaneously China Mobile The three major operators, China Unicom and Telecom plan to build more than 1 million 5G base stations by the end of 2020. The high growth of base stations has driven the demand for antennas, circulators and other equipment. The company's customers Hengxin Technology And Suzhou Bofat are core companies in this field, which will drive the company's equipment demand. Superimposed company has entered the supply chain of Apple's airpods upstream equipment. With the new technology Hot-Bar, it is expected to obtain more orders from Apple. Under the peak of 5G construction, the 3C industry's demand for high-end soldering equipment is growing rapidly, and it will bring deterministic growth to the company's performance next year.

Profit forecast and valuation

In the context of the 5G construction entering the peak period, the company's high-end soldering equipment sales are expected to continue to grow, and the stack may receive more orders from Apple in the future, with strong performance certainty. The company is expected to realize net profit attributable to its mother of RMB 171,207,245 million in 2019-2021, corresponding to an EPS of RMB 1.08, 1.31, and 1.56, and a corresponding PE of 24, 20, and 17 times.

risk warning

(1) Lower than expected recovery in downstream industries; (2) Rising prices of upstream raw materials;

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