I want to renew
2019/12/31 15:03:06 Source: Everbright Securities 2019/12/31 15:03:06
On December 30,
The first phase of ZPEC was put into operation smoothly, and the second phase accelerated construction to open up space.
Zhejiang Petrochemical's first phase of 20 million tons of main equipment has been successfully put into trial operation and will gradually reach a good level of operation; the second phase of the project has started construction of 20 million tons. Due to the completion of the first phase of infrastructure and the accumulation of project management experience, it is expected that the second phase The progress will be significantly faster than the first phase, and the main unit is expected to be completed by the end of 2020. At the same time, the company's 8 billion fixed increase for the second phase of the project has passed, which will further alleviate the pressure on project funding. Zhejiang Petrochemical is currently the largest domestic integrated refining and chemical project with overall planning and construction. The chemical processing depth is high, the raw material adaptability is strong, the Zhoushan petrochemical base is highly positioned, and it is located in the core area of the Yangtze River Delta. The long-term benefits are worth looking forward to.
The PTA giant's production capacity updates go hand in hand, the polyester production capacity is appropriately matched, and the industry chain control is firmly grasped.
The first phase of the new PTA capacity of 6 million tons of PTA in Ningbo is expected to be completed by the end of 2020. As a leading PTA company, the company closely follows the new round of PTA capacity update. In terms of polyester, the company will make appropriate capacity expansion. The company plans to build a new capacity of 500,000 tons of polyester filament, expand the capacity of polyester film, and jointly build a million-ton bottle capacity with Hengyi. While marching towards the upstream of refining and chemical integration, the company firmly grasped the competitiveness and control of the core industry chain of "PX-PTA-polyester".
2019Q4-2020H1, PTA and polyester filament are still facing downward pressure.
According to industry data we observe, as of December 30, 2019, the average POY price of polyester filaments was -918 yuan / ton, and the average price difference was -373 yuan / ton; the average price of polyester FDY was -808 yuan / ton, The price difference is -276 yuan / ton; the average price of PTA is -653 yuan / ton, the average price is -538 yuan / ton; the average price of PX is -13 dollars / ton, and the average price of PX-naphtha is -66 dollars / ton . It is expected that the profit of the non-refining sector of the company in Q4 2019 will be significantly lower than that in Q3 2019.
2019Q4-2021, the PTA industry will usher in a new round of production cycle, and the prosperity will decline sharply.
Maintain profit forecast and maintain "overweight" rating.
We maintain EPS of 0.44, 0.71 and 1.19 for 2019-2021. The current stock price corresponding to the PE of 2019-2021 is 28/17/10 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
The risk that the production expansion of the PTA industry will significantly decline; the risk that the profit or progress of the Zhejiang Petrochemical project will be worse than expected; the risk that the PX spread will narrow significantly; the risk that the oil price will fall rapidly.