The economy continues to stabilize! This key indicator stands on the stock market for two consecutive months.

2019/12/31 14:34:29 Source: China Securities Journal 2019/12/31 14:34:29

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the morning of the 31st showed that the December PMI was 50.2%, which was the same as last month, and was above the Rongkuang line for two consecutive months.

Zhang Liqun, a special analyst of the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation, believes that this data shows that the signs of economic stabilization continue to be maintained, but the foundation still needs to be consolidated.

The three major A-share indexes rose slightly in the morning. Recently, with the recovery of economic data, the central bank has continuously lowered policy interest rates, the market ’s expectations for subsequent economic stabilization have risen, and the anticipation of counter-cyclical and monetary policy's joint efforts is expected to ignite A-share “spring agitation” structural market.

The economy continues to stabilize! This key indicator stands on the stock market for two consecutive months.

Source: Wind

Stabilizing situation continues

Wen Tao, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center, believes that there are three main reasons why the manufacturing PMI can continue to stabilize in the expansion range in December.

First, the effects of the release of market demand during the holiday season have been shown. The Spring Festival factors have driven the domestic consumer goods industry's production and sales growth. The new order index was 51.2%, which remained in the expansion range; the consumer goods industry PMI was 51.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; and Christmas also drove the rebound of foreign market demand. The new export order index was 50.3%, which rose to the expansion range for the first time this year.

Second, market confidence and expectations have stabilized, which is conducive to the rebound in imports and exports. In addition to the new export order index rising to the highest level of the year in December, the import index also reached a new high of 49.9% during the year, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month and an increase of 4 percentage points from the same period last year.

Third, the support of new kinetic energy to the economy has increased. The growth rate of new kinetic energy continues to be higher than that of high-energy-consuming industries, and its contribution to the economy continues to increase. The PMI of the equipment manufacturing industry was 51.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of the high-tech industry was 52.8%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. The two indices rose for 3 consecutive months and 4 consecutive months. Among them, calculators, communication electronics, electrical machinery and railway ship aviation equipment manufacturing and other industries continued to maintain rapid growth, and the index was operating at a better level.

Counter-cyclic adjustment material

Zhang Liqun said that because it is currently at the end of the year and beginning of the year, it is common for enterprises to complete tasks for this year and plan production targets for the next year. Various indicators in the PMI index have been mixed, indicating that the factors that promote economic recovery and downward pressure on the economy are still in a mutual struggle, and the future outlook is still uncertain. Efforts should continue to be made to implement the various policies and measures to achieve the "six stability" and to strengthen the foundation for economic stability as soon as possible.

Consolidating the trend of economic stabilization and overweight counter-cyclical adjustments have become the industry consensus.

The Central Economic Working Conference held a few days ago changed the description of prudent monetary policy, and adjusted the "easy moderation" of the previous year to "flexible moderation", indicating that on the basis of maintaining stability, monetary policy will be more flexible and proactive in accordance with the economic situation. At the same time, this meeting also emphasized the need to reduce the cost of social financing and enhance the long-term financing of manufacturing.

The Bank of China report predicts that monetary policy will increase countercyclical adjustments early next year to cope with rising demand for credit, and operations will be more accommodative. First, monetary policy will be more inclined to launch targeted manufacturing long-term financing support policies, strengthen financial institutions' support for major national strategic projects, and optimize financing structures. Secondly, future monetary policy will focus on guiding LPR interest rates, further promoting the marketization of interest rates, and promoting the decline in financing costs.

It can be seen from the changes in the index that although there is still downward pressure on the economic operation, positive factors continue to accumulate and gradually emerge. The foundation for stable development has been continuously strengthened, the economic resilience is better, and the ability to withstand risks has increased, laying a good foundation for stable economic operation in 2020 basis.

A-share "spring agitation" market is expected to ignite

CITIC Securities analysts clearly expect that after January next year, as the economy gradually bottoms out and stabilizes, CPI peaks and slowly declines. The anticipation of the joint efforts of counter-cyclical and monetary policies is expected to ignite the "spring agitation" structural market of A shares.

Looking back at the spring market since 2010, there is a higher probability of the phenomenon of "spring frenzy".

Research on Great Wall Securities Strategy

Driven by the denominator factor since December, industries such as new energy vehicles, 5G, electronics, and media have taken the lead in rising, and market sentiment has increased significantly. Recently, affected by risk events such as reductions and lifting of the ban, A shares have slightly adjusted. The current market environment is in line with the conditions for "spring agitation" over the years, and the subsequent market may continue to fluctuate upward.

Li Jinfeng Team of China National Securities

Looking forward to January 2020, there is a high probability that there will be "spring agitation" in A shares. The reason why the A-share market in January tends to perform well, or is mainly related to "wide money, wide credit". The lending scale in the first quarter was the first in four quarters, and January was the highest peak of new credit in the first quarter. In addition, at the beginning of the new year's work plan of various ministries and commissions, macro-control departments inspected banks, and some enterprise design and planning blueprints were successively released, which continued to boost risk appetite.

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