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Technology stocks are expected to enter the long bull cycle investment election time to choose "track"

2019/12/09 08:49:13 Source: China Securities Journal 2019/12/09 08:49:13

In the minds of most professional investors, investment and life have many similarities. For example, both are full of uncertainty, but they both have methods to improve the long-term winning rate. In my opinion, investment, like life, is the process of finding the "track" and achieving the goal in the right way. In stock investment, the author is more inclined to choose growth stocks with good texture and reasonable valuation from the booming industries in three to five years for investment. Looking ahead to 2020, the author believes that next year technology stocks will usher in the performance cashing period, and technology stocks will usher in the layout of the long bull cycle. The "race track" at the cusp includes the Internet, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, 5G industry chain and other industries.


Technology stocks usher in layout window



Since the beginning of this year, the technology stocks of the A-share market have come first, becoming one of the most beautiful sectors in the year. Under the background that the domestic and foreign economies remain stable and corporate profits are facing downward pressure, the performance of the technology sector is considered by many investors as A signal to enter a long bull cycle. In my opinion, the long-term bull market cycle of technology stocks may have started. Next year will be a test period for technology stock companies such as semiconductors and other import substitution industry chains to take the lead in realizing performance. Among them, the stock price of listed companies whose performance can be realized on schedule will increase far. Beyond expectations.


As the Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen interconnectivity mechanism becomes more and more smooth, mainland investors can also easily invest in technology stocks in the Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen market. However, the technology stocks of the three places show different characteristics, and their investment ideas will also differ. Among them, mainland investors will look at the future industrial structure and business space when pricing A-share technology stocks. Therefore, pricing will focus on the company's future growth expectations and high valuations; most of the Hong Kong technology stocks are in a stable growth stage , The market will be evaluated based on its growth and historical valuation level, and the market will often give a valuation only after seeing cash flow. In short, A-shares place more emphasis on growth expectations, while Hong Kong shares focus on actual earnings.


For various reasons, the valuation of Hong Kong technology stocks is relatively low. However, it is difficult to generalize whether technology stocks of A shares or Hong Kong stocks have greater investment value. At present, the Hong Kong stock market has leading technology companies with a high market share, a large market size, and the deepest moat, such as Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and Sun Optics; while the A-share market has semiconductors that are scarce in the Hong Kong stock market, Many companies such as electronic components are featured. The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets complement each other, effectively covering high-quality companies in China's technology sector.


As far as investment time is concerned, the technology stocks of both A-share and Hong Kong stocks now have better layout opportunities. With regard to A shares, with the introduction of the science and technology board and registration system, the listing profit requirement has been cancelled, and the US capital market has imposed stricter audit requirements on the listing of Chinese companies, which will to some extent promote the listing of technology companies in the Mainland. Attracting Chinese stocks to return to the mainland for listing, more hard technology companies will also land on A-shares in the future.


Since the beginning of this year, the performance of the Hong Kong stock market is weaker than that of A shares, but Hong Kong stocks may have better opportunities next year, of which technology stocks deserve attention. On the one hand, the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is in a global depression, and the market has fully reflected short-term risks. On the other hand, the earnings of Hong Kong stock companies have basically bottomed out in the third quarter. There may be an upward trend in corporate profits next year, which is expected to usher in both valuation and profit. According to data, as of the close of December 6, since this year, 218.9 billion yuan of funds have flowed south into Hong Kong stocks. The core of its layout is that Hong Kong stocks have cheap high-quality assets.


Optimize the good companies on the good track


Combining past research and investment experience, the author believes that finding high-quality companies to buy and hold at appropriate valuation positions is one of the effective ways to invest in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Shenzhen technology stocks in the future, which is also my consistent investment thinking.


The definition of "quality" starts with the definition of "track"-the industry trend in which the company is located. For technology stocks, researching industry trends is more important than researching company valuations and business models. It is necessary to choose the most valuable sub-sectors in the industry chain. These industries will have an upswing in the next three to five years, and they will be more likely to have excellent targets for sustainable growth. For example, Huawei ’s industrial chain imports and substitutes semiconductor companies, and provides alternatives in 5G. Foreign core parts companies and leading companies in the Internet industry are located on the excellent track in the technology field. The "track" where an enterprise is located determines its growth trend and space.


The second is to study the business model and competition barriers of enterprises. Whether the business model is sustainable is very important. The best business model is that the company has established technology that can help it expand at no cost. At the same time, it is necessary to analyze the company's position in the industrial chain. If the company's position in the industrial chain is very high, Importantly, the barriers will be relatively high.


Specifically, the author will study the growth of individual stocks through qualitative and quantitative analysis of individual stocks. Qualitative analysis mainly judges the company's texture through the company's business model, business operation, core barriers, corporate governance, management souls, etc .; quantitative analysis mainly evaluates the selected targets, and compares the industry valuation of the company horizontally And the location of the subject. At the same time, pay attention to the growth rate of corporate earnings and ROE trends. The company that eventually enters the author's position portfolio is usually a company with relatively good fundamentals and a rapid growth in corporate profits. It is expected to grow into a great company in the future.


At this point in time, the Internet, medicine, semiconductors, and 5G are in a good "track", and the probability of choosing leading companies to obtain long-term stable returns is high. China is the country with the best Internet development in the world. Internet giants have sustainable profitability and strong barriers; semiconductors may have great companies in the future; medicine is mainly based on innovative drugs; China is also vigorously developing innovative drugs at this stage. The demand of China is in line with China ’s future increase in per capita medical expenditure. 5G investment will be transferred from hardware to software. Companies that can continue to gain market share in areas such as 5G applications, Huawei industry chain 5G upgrade iterations, and import substitution are worthy of special attention.


Investment in technology stocks involves all aspects of industry trends, business models, core technologies, and the rapid changes in technology, making it difficult for individual investors to obtain all the information and analyze it in depth. The author will actively seize the timing of the allocation of A shares and Hong Kong stocks, strive to find excellent technology companies, embrace the technology era with holders, and seize investment opportunities.


(Article source: China Securities Journal)


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