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Yang Ma suddenly shot! Is the interest rate cut cycle on? Is 3000 steady?

2019/11/06 08:54:32 Source: Oriental Fortune Securities Research Institute 2019/11/06 08:54:32

On November 5, the central bank launched a 400 billion yuan medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation yesterday. The central bank launched a one-year MLF operation. The interest rate was reduced from 3.3% to 3.25%. The MLF maturity scale yesterday was 403.5 billion yuan.



Some market sources commented that the MLF continued to be expected and the operation volume did not exceed expectations, but I am afraid few people expected this interest rate adjustment in advance.



It is worth noting that this is the first time that the People's Bank of China has reduced the MLF operating rate since February 2016.



Some professionals have been surprised that the People's Bank of China has lowered interest rates on medium-term borrowing facilities for another three years.


Soyong Securities' solid income chief analyst Li Yong said that the MLF interest rate cut exceeded market expectations, and the central bank's plan to guide LPR down will effectively reduce the cost of bank liabilities. If the macro data does not exceed expectations, the 10-year government bond rate this month There is expected to be 10-15 bps of downside space.


Zhou Hao, senior economist at Commerzbank in Singapore, said that given the current upward pressure on CPI, China ’s central bank ’s move to cut MLF interest rates is “brave”, but it also reflects China ’s increasing policy support for the economy. The loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) will fall by 5 basis points.


Stock market and national debt both rise


After the central bank announced the policy rate cut, China's 10-year government bond futures rose straight, closing up 0.38% to 97.795 yuan.



The A-share market also rose across the board. As of the close, the Shanghai Index rose 0.54% to close at 2,991 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.71% to close at 9,938 points; the GEM Index rose 0.79% to close at 1,713 points.



In fact, the market has previously called for interest rate cuts, but with the previous few LPR quotations, the central bank has not made any interest rate cuts, and the market expects lower interest rates this year.


Why choose to cut interest rates at the moment?


But why did you choose to cut interest rates at the moment? Some analysts believe that this may be the result of a game between the central bank and banks.


Zhong Zhengsheng, chairman and chief economist of Monita Research, said that banks have limited space and willingness to compress risk premiums. The October LPR quote results remain unchanged at September levels, which fully illustrates this point, that is, the spread between banks' LPR quotes and MLF Not lowered. This is because the economy is in a downward cycle, which makes banks' balance sheets under pressure, but to a certain extent, the game between central banks and banks is also difficult to avoid.


Jianghai Securities commented that the previous reduction in LPR was based on compressing interest rate differentials, which will undoubtedly reduce bank profits. The LPR interest rate did not decrease in October, indicating that banks are unwilling to compress profits. Therefore, if the cost of funds is to be reduced, the MLF interest rate must be reduced. .


Will the monetary easing space be opened in the future?


As for whether the downward space for future monetary policy is open, there are still differences among professionals, and a unified conclusion has not yet been formed.


The chief analyst of CITIC Securities' solid income clearly believes that since the beginning of this year, global central banks have been more accommodative, and the RMB exchange rate has remained stable. The central bank ’s monetary policy space is relatively sufficient. The future monetary policy space has been opened. The central bank may adopt a volume-price policy. After the interest rate cut, it is possible to further introduce a policy of lowering quotas at the end of the year or the beginning of the year to further increase the supply of liquidity and stabilize the economy as a whole.


Jiang Chao of Haitong Securities has different views. Jiang Chao believes that the LPR quotation in October has not been reduced, and market-based interest rate cuts have been hindered. After the MLF interest rate is cut, the interest rate of newly-increased loan contracts will fall, but the reduction is relatively limited, which means that monetary policy is still a solid and neutral tone. In the short term, inflation will remain under pressure, and easing will remain limited.


Zhong Zhengsheng also believes that the current demands of the central bank for cherishing the space of normal monetary policy still exist. This "rate cut" is an unexpected surprise to the market, but does this mean that the "gate" to loose money will become more and more smooth? In the context of increasing inflationary pressures, further observation is needed, and do not make unrealistic guesses.


Institutions: A shares are expected to rise again


The MLF interest rate has been reduced. Is the A-share standing above 3000 points stable?


Fan Jituo, chief strategy analyst of New Times Securities, said that the falling interest rate of the MLF bid is expected to drive a new round of rise in A shares. The central bank eased market concerns about monetary policy. Regarding the reduction of interest rates, the market had long expected, but the time point was still beyond expectations. There is no real trend short in the current market, and most cautious investors are waiting for the market to adjust to a lower position before adding positions. Now, although there is a lack of improved low valuations on the right side of the fundamentals, there is no shortage of cheap valuations and fundamentals on the left.


In terms of allocation, Fan Jituo believes that starting in late November, concerns about profitability will be completely passivated. It is recommended to pay attention to optional consumption and finance that have been suppressed by the economic downturn. First do the rebound caused by the economic downturn. If you see more signs of optimism in the future, you can continue to raise expectations. The style may gradually shift to the main board, and cyclical stocks have a chance.


According to Wen Tianna, chief executive officer of Broad Capital, the MLF's bidding interest rate has dropped. In fact, the market is not expected to have a downward adjustment in the beginning. Now it exceeds market expectations. The central bank wants to stabilize the financial market and the real economy. The real economy is of great help, and corporate debt burdens can be reduced. This will help high-debt companies and newly issued bonds to a certain extent, and corporate profits will have the opportunity to improve.


Qin Han, chief solid income analyst at Guotai Junan, said that MLF interest rate cuts stabilize market confidence. For most investors, it is advisable to continue to wait patiently for a more definitive time for boarding. The MLF interest rate cut is more positive for the stock market.


Where can A shares rise in the future?


And what point may A shares rise in the future? Institutions have expressed their opinions on this.


Huang Yanming, director of Guotai Junan Research Institute, said that the judgment of the A-share market in the next 6 months is that market risk appetite will gradually rise. The possibility of the Shanghai Index falling below 2700 points in the next 6 months is not possible, and the Shanghai Index may be before the end of the year. Standing on 3000 points, then in the first quarter of next year, it will run between 3000 and 3300 points.


Lianxun Securities optimistically stated in the newly released 2020 A-share strategic outlook that "the year-end and the beginning of the year will usher in a policy-intensive period and the market is expected to be ignited. It is expected to challenge the 3700-point area in 2020, and the market may be more accurate in the first half of the year. "The basis of judgment is based on factors such as the short-term bottom of the A-share performance and the fact that the external environment will change from negative to friendly.


China Merchants Securities predicts in the 2020 investment outlook that in the first half of 2020, due to greater inflationary pressures, monetary policy will be constrained, and the market will be dominated by structural conditions. In the second half of the year, as the downward pressure on the economy increases, inflation will fall. The space for monetary policy opens, and the market is expected to continue to rise in a more relaxed environment. The trend of the year may be "".


For investors' reference only, does not constitute investment advice


(Article source: Oriental Fortune Securities Research Institute)


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